Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models

A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter the Mediterranean basin, is essential developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation wind anomalies. The aim this was analyze changes activity Mediterranean–Black Sea region, as part North Atlantic–European sector, at three 15 year periods: beginning, middle, end 21st century. Our projections were on an ensemble seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 6, models, which showed best agreement with NCEP/NCAR ERA5 reanalyses under intermediate SSP2-4.5 highest-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. results a consistent increase frequency cyclones over Central Europe British Isles, associated shifts cyclone tracks: northward from western region southward Icelandic Low region. latter shift led decrease northern At same time, there reduction eastern Sea, cyclogenesis events. Area-averaged numbers Black subregions reduced century scenario, but not constantly. There rise middle both scenarios, may be linked long-term multidecadal variability or regional features. In general, our that will respond unevenly global climate changes, due monthly features quasiperiodic variability.